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There has been significant discussion recently to define or redefine the role of central banks and the objective of monetary policy. This post great recession definition is being labeled as Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). MMT makes the case that central banks should respond to growing government programs and economic demands by aggressively printing money, unconstrained by tax receipts and borrowing…Read More

A typically reliable gauge of business conditions in the U.S. is published by Morgan Stanley and tracks headlines in financial media. As the chart indicates, the recent drop in the Headlines Index is severe and is now approaching the level last seen in early 2009. The latest reading of 13 is well below the 33 level considered necessary to forecast continued growth in the economy and just a fractio…Read More

An epic Tug-O-War ensued in mid-April between the Fed and the bond market that shows no signs of going away, even if the Fed is hinting at their ultimate defeat. While the Fed was still sounding hawkish about rates and their projections showed more tightening ahead, the bond market began to move in the exact opposite direction. The 10-year Bond has now dropped from a yield of 2.6% two months ago t…Read More

By:  Clint Pekrul, CFA The likelihood of a recession in the next year is over 50% in our view. While we can’t time the beginning of a recession, we can observe how various asset classes have performed over prior economic contractions. The past isn’t necessarily a perfect guide, but it can be informative. We can draw some conclusions about how asset prices might behave in a recession, and set …Read More

While much is continually made of the "New Normal" in the financial markets, volatility since the beginning of 2018 looks more like a return to the "Old Normal". This month we attempt to identify whether the spike in market volatility suggests the onset of a bear market or a need for increased patience by investors. We show how a strategy to manage volatility, similar to Dynamic Risk Hedging, can …Read More

If you have been watching the financial news  lately, you’ve likely heard of the recent implosion of a few exchange-traded products, and the subsequent fallout from the news media about how these products pose a systemic risk to the financial system. In this installment of In the  Spotlight, we’d like to shed our views on the ETF market and examine what happened in the recent demise of two s…Read More

Having had a couple of weeks to process the voluminous amount of data and opinions at the Mauldin Strategic Investment Conference, it is easy to see that change is coming. The volatility since early February has been very different than what has been experienced since this bull market began. This month's analysis focuses on what we are calling Regime Change and how that will impact investors and t…Read More

Robust Service Offering as a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, CFP® Colorado Springs, CO, February 15, 2017 - Geoffry Eliason, CFP® Chief Operations Officer at Peak Capital Management in Colorado Springs, CO has been authorized by the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards (CFP Board) to use the CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ and CFP® certification marks in accordance with CFP Board certi…Read More

We are excited to share this month's PCM Report which is our annual Roundtable discussion of the economy and markets. Brian down with John Mauldin (Mauldin Solutions), Steve Blumenthal (CMG), and Clint Pekrul (PCM) at the recent Inside ETFs conference. The discussion was robust and challenged some commonly held views of consensus today. There are many short videos linked throughout the report that…Read More

“Bigger than Brexit” is the line many around the globe were uttering in response to Donald Trump’s stunning sweep of the American Electorate that only the most ardent of Trump supporters could have thought possible. As we take a step back and consider the ramification of last night’s election, it seems clear this was not as big a surprise as the media would like people to believe. The medi…Read More